Add StudioX as a preferred source on GoogleThe war with Iran is in its ninth month, and the United States is voting in midterm elections on Tuesday with no military or diplomatic resolution in sight. According to a DW News analysis based on interviews with three experts, the outcome will turn on several factors, and some analysts see a high risk of fresh escalation.
DW spoke with Omid Memarian of the Washington-based think tank DAWN, Babak Rezaei Daryakenari of Leiden University in the Netherlands, and a Finland-based political analyst.
Midterms and Israel’s deadlock
Memarian said a Democratic win in Congress would push President Donald Trump toward domestic issues and would likely expose the war’s financial costs. Even so, he said Trump could continue limited strikes without formally declaring war. Rezaei Daryakenari made a similar point, noting that a president has wide latitude in military operations and that a Republican defeat does not necessarily stop new attacks.
Memarian expects Trump to look for an exit that lets him save face after the vote. During the campaign, Trump said he expected a deal with Tehran soon after the midterms. Reuters, however, cited three senior Iranian officials and another source as saying Tehran has deliberately dragged out talks to weaken Trump politically.
In Israel, the October 27 election ended without a clear winner. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the camp backing former military chief Gadi Eisenkot secured a majority. Memarian warned that the transition period could be the most dangerous for escalation, since Netanyahu might act while he still holds power.
A change of government would not fundamentally alter Israel’s Iran policy, Memarian said, though Eisenkot might coordinate more closely with Washington. Rezaei Daryakenari said Israel’s security concerns are not limited to Netanyahu.
Nuclear impasse and regional flashpoints
The nuclear programme remains the biggest open issue. Memarian said the US wants talks to begin with early concessions, while Iran wants sanctions lifted and frozen assets released first. Until the two sides agree on an agenda, he said, tensions are likely to keep climbing. The Finland-based analyst said Tehran sees the programme as a survival guarantee and a bargaining chip, while Washington fears a nuclear Iran would upend its strategy.
About 20 per cent of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began in late February, and Iran has since sharply cut energy exports through it. Memarian argued that Iranian restrictions alone will not trigger escalation, though any incident could serve as a pretext if Washington decides a broader attack is needed. He said the US could instead opt for an economic blockade while keeping talks alive.
The Houthis in Yemen have also targeted energy exports in the Red Sea, including attacks on Saudi cities and infrastructure. Memarian described the group as an Iranian ally rather than a subordinate, acting on pragmatic calculations. Rezaei Daryakenari said such attacks could both widen the war and encourage countries to cooperate more closely militarily to protect trade, narrowing Iran’s room for manoeuvre.
Mediators and the economic toll
With direct US-Iran talks stalled, attention has turned to Qatar, Oman, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Memarian said they are close to Washington but also want to keep ties with Tehran. The Finland-based analyst said Washington’s failure to support its Arab allies during the war could eventually push them toward America’s rivals.
Memarian said the present moment offers the best chance to end the standoff before Trump leaves office in January 2029. He warned that Trump could launch a massive attack and then declare victory. Rezaei Daryakenari said escalatory factors will likely have the upper hand in coming months, and that Tehran could avoid a new round only through concessions its leaders would see as close to surrender.
High oil prices, shipping risks and economic strain are weighing on all sides. The Finland-based analyst said, “The economy is the Achilles’ heel of every party to this war.” She added that energy supply and the expectations of the American public have influenced the Trump administration.
For readers in Canada, the story’s reach is global: the analysts point to oil prices and shipping risks that affect countries well beyond the Middle East.
Source: DW News
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