Add StudioX as a preferred source on GoogleDemocrats are heading into Tuesday’s US midterm elections with high expectations, according to analysis from BBC North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, published by BBC World. Polls suggest they could win back the House of Representatives and are competitive in key Senate races. But recent history shows the polls can miss.
What the polls show
BBC World reports that Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 House seats needed for control of the chamber. In the Senate, the party is tied or narrowly ahead in the key contests.
A recent New York Times poll had the Senate race in South Carolina as a tie. Donald Trump won that state by 18 percentage points in 2024. Recent CNN surveys put Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine.
The analysis says the backdrop favours the party out of power: a historically unpopular Republican president and voters unhappy with rising food and household costs.
Why polls have missed before
Trump outperformed predictions in his 2016 and 2024 White House wins. His narrow 2020 loss to Joe Biden came after most surveys had pointed to a more comfortable Democratic victory. Earlier this year, polls also missed in two Democratic primaries. In Michigan’s Senate primary, a predicted double-digit win for Abdul El-Sayed became a 1% result. In Wisconsin’s race for governor, a candidate with a lead approaching 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent.
Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, says polling is harder because Americans have abandoned landlines and screen their calls. Many of those who are reached are also less willing to take part. He says far-right conservatives are especially anti-establishment and often refuse to participate.
If Republican voters are undercounted and pollsters do not adjust their voting models, the data could tilt toward Democrats. Another factor is that Trump’s supporters, many of them not regular voters, turned out in higher numbers than expected in earlier presidential races.
Young cautions against reading too much into this year’s primary surprises. Nominating contests have historically been volatile, he says, because voters tend to decide late.
Midterm polls have been more accurate in recent years, in part because Trump was not on the ballot. In 2022, they suggested Democrats would avoid a wipe-out. The party lost the House by slim margins but kept the Senate.
Why Democrats may not have a perfect night
The party of the president often does badly in midterms. In 2010, Republicans flipped more than 60 House seats, a larger swing than polls had predicted. This time the roles are reversed.
The analysis lists several reasons Democrats may fall short of expectations:
- Much of the territory in play is where Trump won easily two years ago, making it something of a home game for Republicans.
- Changes to House boundaries over the years mean fewer seats switch parties.
- Deeper polarization has left fewer swing voters. Some experts call the electorate calcified.
- Republicans have a cash advantage, giving them hundreds of millions of dollars for attack ads in the final weeks.
Individual polls carry a margin of error, and polling averages are generally a better guide than single surveys. Even a lean like the one seen in recent presidential elections would still point to a good night for Democrats, the analysis says. Errors can also favour them: in last year’s state and special elections, Democrats beat most surveys because their voters turned out in unexpectedly large numbers.
Late shifts remain possible, and undecided voters still make up a key segment in many races. Young says pollsters are doing a better job, but adds: “Humans are not easy.”
Source: BBC World
Harnaik Singh Rathor is the Founder, Publisher, and Editor-in-Chief of StudioX News Canada, Canada's multilingual digital news network serving multilingual diaspora communities across Canada. With a background in media production, public relations, and multicultural communications, he founded StudioX Film and TV Corporation to bridge the gap between mainstream Canadian media and the country's diverse immigrant communities. He is a member of the Canadian Association of Journalists (CAJ), RTDNA Canada, CPRS Vancouver, NEPMCC, and the Canadian Freelance Union (Unifor). Based in Surrey, British Columbia. | LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/harnaiksinghrathor/ | Muck Rack: https://muckrack.com/harnaiksinghrathor | Email: editor@studioxnews.ca
